Bitcoin’s New Bull Market Target: Why $150K May Be the Top Before the Next Bear Market

Bitcoin’s New Bull Market Target: Why $150K May Be the Top Before the Next Bear Market

Let’s get real: Bitcoin is not blasting off to half a million dollars this cycle, no matter how many moonboy tweets you read. The charts don’t lie—volume is drying up, RSI is flashing red, and the pattern of diminishing returns is undeniable. People hyping insane targets are selling dreams, not reality. If you’re still clinging to the fantasy of a blow-off top, you’re setting yourself up to get wrecked. This cycle isn’t about how high Bitcoin can go anymore—it’s about protecting the profits you’ve already made.

Just a couple of months ago, Aaron Dishner from The Better Traders projected that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $173,000 by the peak of this bull market. But with recent developments in price action, volume, and momentum indicators, his outlook has shifted. The revised target? $150,000 as a more realistic top before a bear market correction sets in.

Here’s a deep dive into why Aaron has adjusted his target, what signals he’s tracking, and what could come next for Bitcoin and altcoins.

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Why $173K Was the Original Target

Aaron’s first projection of $173,000 came from analyzing Fibonacci extension levels across multiple market cycles:

• In 2017, Bitcoin overshot the 1.618 FIB level, peaking near the 2.272 extension.

• In 2021, the 1.618 extension again provided a strong resistance level.

• Using similar math, $173K aligned with historical FIB targets if Bitcoin repeated its past growth patterns.

However, Bitcoin has shown diminishing returns each cycle. Gains of 8,000% in the early days dropped to 200%–150% in recent cycles. This makes another blow-off top toward $173K less likely.

UPDATE: New BTC Target (no hopium)

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Why the New Target is $150K

Aaron now believes Bitcoin will more realistically top around $150,000 in this cycle. His reasoning includes:

1. Weak Trading Volume

• Volume acts like “votes” in the market.

• In past bull markets (2017, 2020), huge spikes in trading volume confirmed strong investor participation.

• Today, Bitcoin’s weekly volume trend is declining, showing less enthusiasm from new buyers.

• Even big institutional buys (MicroStrategy, El Salvador) haven’t significantly shifted the needle.

2. RSI Showing Bearish Divergence

• On the weekly and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bitcoin is flashing weakness.

• Monthly RSI readings above 95 have historically marked bull market tops.

• Current RSI levels show lower highs, signaling momentum loss despite price increases.

3. The Four-Year Cycle Still Intact

Aaron points to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle structure (Top → Bottom → Recovery → Rally → Top):

• 2014: Bottom year

• 2016: Recovery year

• 2017: Rally year (blow-off top)

• 2018: Bottom year

• 2020–2021: Recovery and rally years

• 2025: Top year

By this logic, mid-to-late 2025 is the expected cycle peak, with a bear market beginning soon after.

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Timeline: When Could Bitcoin Top?

• Mid-November 2025: Aaron’s projected cycle peak around $150K.

• Late 2025: Altcoins may rally after Bitcoin tops, but only briefly.

• 2026: Start of the next bear market year, historically lasting 12–18 months.

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What Happens After the Top?

If BTC tops around $150K:

• Altcoins: Could see a final short-lived surge before crashing harder than BTC. Many could lose 70%–90% of their value.

• Bear Market Low: Aaron points to monthly RSI ranges of 30–35 as the bottom zone. This suggests BTC could retrace to $40K–$60K before the next recovery.

• Investor Sentiment: Just like 2018 and 2022, a harsh bear market could drive mainstream investors away and fuel anti-crypto narratives.

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Conclusion

Aaron Dishner’s revised analysis places Bitcoin’s bull market top closer to $150,000, not $173,000 or the wildly speculative $500K–$1M calls circulating in the crypto space. His reasoning is grounded in:

• Declining volume

• Weakening RSI signals

• The consistency of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle

For investors, this outlook is both optimistic (BTC still doubling from here) and cautious (a sharp bear market is likely next). Protecting profits and preparing for volatility will be crucial as Bitcoin approaches the late stages of its current cycle.