Why This Bull Run Feels “Most Hated” — And Where Alt Season Went

Why this bull run feels “most hated” — and where alt season went

If you hang out on Crypto Twitter or in any trading Discord, the vibe is weird. Prices are up, headlines are bullish, yet traders sound… mad. This cycle has been called the “most hated bull run” because it hasn’t felt like prior manias—especially if you hold a bag of alts that refuses to move. Here’s what’s going on, why emotions are running hot, and what typically precedes a true rotation into altcoins.

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Why sentiment is sour while prices rise

1) The rally is narrow.
Returns have concentrated in a short list: BTC, ETH, a handful of mega-caps, and a rotating cast of narrative leaders (AI, restaking, DePIN, a few SOL/Base memes). If you didn’t own those, your P/L lags the index. That creates a “bull market in headlines, bear market in my portfolio” feeling.

2) Institutions changed the flow.
Spot ETFs, on-ramp platforms, and stricter compliance funnels fresh fiat into BTC and ETH first. That structural bid grinds higher, but it doesn’t spill to mid/small caps immediately like past retail-led cycles. It’s orderly, not euphoric—great for the benchmark, boring for degens.

3) Tokenomics headwinds.
Many alts are still working through emissions, unlocks, and high staking rewards that create constant sell pressure. Even solid projects trade like they’re on a treadmill—good news just offsets supply, it doesn’t turbocharge price.

4) Perps dominate spot.
Perpetuals and funding dynamics can cap upside in illiquid alts. High open interest + thin order books = sharp squeezes down on wicks that scare buyers away. It feels “rigged” even when fundamentals are fine.

5) PTSD from 2022.
Plenty of traders nuked accounts last cycle. Now they under-risk the uptrend, sell winners early, and chase the next thing too late. Disbelief is a stage of every bull market; it just lasts longer when scars are fresh.

6) Fragmentation and fatigue.
New L2s/L3s, alt-VM chains, and ecosystems = liquidity splintered 50 ways. You can be right on a narrative and wrong on which chain, which token, or which version of the idea. That makes wins feel random.

7) Memecoins stole the spotlight.
Some of the best percentage moves came from low-float memes. If you didn’t play them—or worse, rode the round-trip—you watch BTC make new highs while your PnL is flat. Resentment builds.

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“Where is alt season?”

Short answer: rotations are a process, not a date on the calendar. Historically you see phases:

1. BTC season – Macro/liquidity turns; BTC dominance rises; spot flows prefer the easiest, safest asset.

2. ETH catch-up – Narrative (tech upgrades, ETFs, L2 growth) + better liquidity bring ETH outperformance vs BTC.

3. Majors rotation – SOL, AVAX, ATOM, MATIC, etc. follow as breadth improves.

4. Mids/Smalls – Once majors hold gains, capital moves down the risk curve; builders and narratives matter; beta lifts lots of boats.

5. Late-stage froth – New listings rip, even weak projects pump, and “this time is different” returns… right before a blow-off or grinding top.

We’ve mostly lived in stages 1–2, with pockets of 3–4 by narrative rather than a broad, all-boats alt season.

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What usually flips the switch for alts

No single trigger, but a cluster of signals tends to precede sustainable alt outperformance:

• BTC dominance (BTC.D) rolls over after a strong run, ideally breaking a multi-month uptrend.

• ETH/BTC trend turns up and stays up (not a 2-week head fake).

• Stablecoin supply expands meaningfully (more dry powder on-chain).

• Breadth improves: a rising percentage of alts trade above their 100–200-day moving averages.

• TOTAL3 (crypto mkt cap excluding BTC & ETH) breaks out and holds retests.

• Spot > perps leadership: funding normalizes while spot volumes lead (less squeeze-prone structure).

• Catalyst cadence: real product launches, revenue growth, fee share, and token reforms (reduced emissions, better alignment).

If you’re asking “is it alt season yet?”—watch those, not your timeline.

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Why this time feels different (and might be)

Even if we get a classic rotation, two structural shifts could keep alt season more selective than 2017/2021:

• Institutional rails keep the lion’s share of new money in BTC/ETH for longer, and compliance filters out many coins entirely.

• Market microstructure (ETFs, market-making sophistication, perps ubiquity) smooths the index and starves long-tail alts unless they show real usage or cash flows.

Translation: we may still see a ripping alt window—but quality and token design matter more than ever. Bagholding a high-emission ghost chain hoping for “beta” is a rough plan.

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A practical playbook (not financial advice)

1) Anchor the core.
Keep BTC/ETH as your base. They capture the liquidity cycle and protect you if the rotation takes longer than your patience.

2) Barbell your risk.
Pair a core in majors with a few high-conviction alts tied to provable metrics (users, revenue, fees, share). Narratives with legs this cycle: AI + crypto rails, restaking/security, DePIN, RWAs/tokenized markets, base/SOL consumer apps, L2 infra, perps/derivatives DEXs.

3) Demand better tokenomics.
Prefer projects with clear emissions schedules, reduced unlock overhang, real sink demand, and credible plans to align token with product usage.

4) Let charts confirm.
Don’t front-run a broad rotation with max risk. Look for ETHBTC strength, BTC.D roll-over, TOTAL3 breakouts, and improving breadth. Scale in, don’t ape.

5) Respect leverage.
Alts ++ leverage is how accounts disappear. If you must, use smaller size and tight risk controls; assume wick season isn’t over.

6) Take profits into strength.
Alts pay in bursts. Pre-define trims (20–30–50%) on vertical moves and recycle only if structure holds. You’re not married to tickers.

7) Manage the “why not me” bias.
Comparing to the one coin that did 5× last week is how people blow up chasing. Track your system, not other people’s screenshots.

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What could go wrong

• Macro/liquidity stumble: rate path or collateral stress tightens conditions; BTC grinds but alts lag or retrace hard.

• Issuance gravity: unlocks + farm-and-dump keep a ceiling on many names despite good news.

• Compliance squeeze: listings/trading access narrow further; flows concentrate even more in the top of the stack.

If those bite, the “most hated bull” stays hated—and selective stock-picking beats blanket alt exposure.

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Bottom line

This bull run feels infuriating if you expected 2021-style everything-goes. The flows are different, supply overhangs are real, and market structure punishes impatience. Alt season isn’t a holiday you can circle on a calendar; it’s a rotation that shows up in dominance, pair trends, breadth, and stablecoin growth—and it tends to reward quality + timing over hope.

Keep your core, curate your risk, watch the signals—then let the market invite you in, not the other way around.